The Challenge of Stabilisation & Reductions of GHG's.

The world is already irrevocably destined to experience further climate changes, which will lead to adverse impacts in many territories. Global temperatures and therefore the severity of those impacts will continue to rise unless the accumulation of greenhouse gases is stabilised. Urgent action is now required to prevent temperatures rising to even higher levels, lowering the risks of impacts that could otherwise seriously threaten lives and livelihood worldwide.

Stabilisation – at whatever level – requires that annual emissions be brought down to the level that balances the Earth’s natural capacity to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. In order to maintain stabilization in the long term, global emissions will need to be reduced to less than 5 GtCO2e, per year (0.8 t CO2 per year per person) which is over 80% below the current level of annual emissions. The longer emissions    remain    above    the   level   of   natural

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absorption the higher the final stabilisation level will need to be.

Stabilisation cannot be achieved without global action to reduce emissions. Early action to stabilise this accumulation at a relatively low level will avoid the risk and cost of larger cuts later. The longer the action is delayed, the harder it will become.

Stabilising at or below 550ppm CO2e (around 440-500ppm CO2 only) would require global emissions to peak in the next 10-20 years, and then fall at the rate of at least 1-3% per year. By 2050, global emissions would need to be around 25% below current levels. These cuts will have to be made in the context of a 2050 world economy that may be three to four times larger than today's, so emissions per unit of GDP would need to be just one quarter of current levels by 2050.

     

  

   

   
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Waymarks for the global energy emissions road map to 2050 showing International Energy Agency (IEA) Reference scenario (red); and also a profile (green) aimed at targets <2degreesCentigrade temperature rise from pre-industrial and 450ppm CO2e stabilization.

 

The division between developed and developing countries from today until 2050 is a construction based on the developed countries' share, compared with that of developing countries, peaking earlier and reducing further e.g. by about 90% by 2050.

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